New research: Melanoma cases expected to rise in 2026

dermatologist sunscreen application skin cancer prevention

New research released in February by the American Cancer Society suggests melanoma cases are expected to rise by more than 10% in 2026, prompting dermatologists in Montgomery County to warn patients about the dangers of year-round sun exposure and indoor tanning.

Dr. Koji Ota, a board-certified dermatologist and spokesperson for The Skin Cancer Foundation, has a special interest in skin cancer detection and treatment. He said he is currently treating patients from all backgrounds—including people in their 20s—for melanoma, the most aggressive form of skin cancer.

“Tanning beds and unprotected sun exposure both play a role,” Ota said during an interview at the Dermatologic Surgery Center of Chevy Chase where he practices medicine. “Indoor tanning is actually a very high-risk activity, not just for melanoma, but also for other skin cancers like basal cell carcinoma.”

Ota said many patients mistakenly believe sunscreen is only necessary during the summer or on sunny days. In reality, ultraviolet rays can penetrate clouds and cause skin damage year-round.

“It’s coming through the clouds,” Ota said. “People don’t realize that.”

In most instances, skin cancer is highly preventable with a sun protection strategy that includes seeking shade, daily sunscreen usage and covering up with clothing, hats and sunglasses, according to The Skin Cancer Foundation.

Meanwhile, health experts say disparities persist in melanoma outcomes. A 2019 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called “Melanoma Among Non-Hispanic Black Americans” found the five-year survival rate for Black patients was 66 percent, compared with 90 percent for non-Hispanic white patients. The most notable person of African descent to reflect this statistic was Bob Marley. The Jamaican reggae artist died at the age of 36 as a result of a melanoma that went untreated for years.

Publicity photo of Bob Marley circa 1977. Photo Credit: Island Records, distributed by Kim Gottlieb

Bob Marley circa 1977. Photo Credit: Island Records

Thinking an itchy mole or bruise that won’t heal is nothing serious is a major contributing factor to poor outcomes for Black and Brown skin cancer patients, Ota said.

“In patients with darker skin tones, melanoma is often diagnosed much later and is [then] harder to treat,” he said.

In the past decade (2016 – 2026), the number of new invasive melanoma cases diagnosed annually increased by more than 46 % nationwide, according to The Skin Cancer Foundation. Ota noted that Maryland mirrors national trends and urged residents in the state to seek medical attention for any changing or non-healing skin lesions, especially those that do not improve within three to four weeks. Prevention, said Ota, remains the most effective defense.

Ota recommends applying sunscreen daily regardless of skin tone or season. An application of about two finger-lengths of sunscreen lotion for the face and two tablespoons for the body before heading outdoors is what is recommended.

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