How much does the weather affect voter turnout? With the possibility of downpours forecast throughout the day, MCM looked at some scientific studies for a barometer of how weather impacts voter participation.
According to several studies, it does indeed seem to have some effect.
For every centimeter of rain — less than half an inch — the odds of voting drop about 1 percentage point, according to an estimate published in the 2023 Electoral Studies. That estimate is based on a meta-analysis of data collected from 27 studies on weather and voter turnout written or published from 1993 to 2023.
A 2023 study found “Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain”.
A study on the Presidential elections from 2012 to 2020 found that rain did indeed dampen voter turnout. According to the study Americans were not alone when it came to going to the polls in inclement weather. The worldwide phenomenon held true in the Netherlands, Norway, Germany and Ireland whether the elections were general or local. The study concluded, “There are high stakes from weather-related suppressed voter turnout”.
Two college professors, Yusaku Horiuchi, and Woo Chang Kang, found younger marginal voters were more likely to support the Democratic Party. They theorized that rainfall “decreases the Democratic candidate’s vote share by as much as 2.08% points, while it increases the Republican candidate’s vote share by 1.00% point.”
Horiuchi and Kang note that it is outside the scope of their study to pinpoint exactly why this happens. After reviewing research on human psychology and behavior, they hypothesize inclement weather may help the Republican Party in one way. Marginal voters are more likely to forgo voting when it is less convenient — for example, when rain makes traveling difficult and waiting in line more uncomfortable.
While some may consider their findings all wet, voters will conduct their own study today.
