Last month I covered new weapons and systems developed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their war with Vladimir Putin. This month I will respond to President Trump’s ignorant assertion that President Zelenskyy “doesn’t hold any cards” in the war, by describing the war casualties and the economic, financial and demographic woes facing the Russians.
MASSIVE CASUALTIES
Zelenskyy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have inflicted astounding casualties on the Russians. Incredibly, in early June of this year, the number of Russians killed in action (KIA) and wounded in action (WIA), as estimated by Ukrainian intelligence, passed the 1,000,000 mark! The figure is now (early August 2025) over 1,050,000. This compares to about 69,000 Russian KIA and WIA in the entire ten years of the Russian/Afghan war, which contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. Zelenskyy stated in early 2025 that Ukrainian KIA was about 46,000 with 380,000 WIA, for a total of 426,000, less than half the Russian losses.
Writing 2500 years ago, the brilliant Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War that a great army leader should “carefully study the well-being of your men, and do not overtax them.” Putin, supposedly a master analyst, has apparently not read this basic, foundational text.
Putin (and many Republicans) think Russia is winning the war, since they are advancing on the ground at a rate of about 50 to 135 meters per day, according to the well-regarded Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). But CSIS says that figure is less than World War I trench warfare battle figures such as Belleau Wood (410 m/day). Russia is “meat-grinding” its soldiers at a rate of 900 to 1500 per day, an unsustainable and terrifying figure.
At the present rate of advance of about 25 miles per year, the Russians will reach the Polish border in – wait for it – more than 30 years! Putin and Trump and their apologists will be dead. RIP.
HORRIFIC INFLATION
The Russian economy is suffering from horrific inflation that is angering the public. While official inflation figures produced by the government agency Rosstat hover around 10 percent, independent analysts such as the Swedish Institute of Transition Economics state that “Russian economic indicators have become part of Russian propaganda.” In four directives since 2022, Rosstat has substantially revised its methodology, manipulating the inflation data to understate their findings, violating the International Labour Organization recommendation that revisions only take place once every five years at most. Rosstat also “adjusted” its figures retroactively, to make the manipulated data more believable.
A more credible inflation figure source was the Russian company ROMIR, which reported in September 2024 that everyday goods increased in price at 22.1% in the previous 12 months, compared to the 10% Rosstat figure. ROMIR had 40,000 Russians who scanned QR codes of what they bought in their 240 towns and cities across the country, amounting to 600,000 reliable data points — per week! By contrast, Rosstat stopped collecting similar granular data shortly after the invasion. In December 2024 ROMIR was ordered to stop publishing its detailed inflation data.
The key food staple in Russia is potatoes, and these have increased from 30 rubles per kilogram in May 2024 to 85 rubles in May 2025 (almost triple), with some regions suffering prices of 200 rubles per kg –- a seven-fold increase!
One cause of inflation is the massive spending on payments for Russian military volunteers. Putin is so desperate for volunteers that signing bonuses are up to $4,600 USD, minimum monthly pay for an army private is $4,651, and some contract soldiers from Moscow are paid $60,000 per year. Death benefits if killed range up to $117,000 (depending on the soldier’s region of residence).
In terms of purchasing power when compared to the US, each of these figures should be multiplied by at least two – in other words, that death benefit of $117,000 is really worth about $250,000 to a Russian family. This is a massive sum, since a typical Russian worker in a rural area might earn only about $540 per month. It is clear that many Russian men aged 50 to 60, near the end of their short, often alcoholic lives, volunteer for the war even though they know the chances of getting killed are about 90 percent. They are providing for their wives and children, by dying. Ironically, many are cheated, by officers declaring that the soldier is “missing in action” rather than killed, and thus does not qualify for the benefit.
MORE FINANCIAL WOES
Russia’s GDP (gross domestic product) for 2025 is forecast to be about $7.7 trillion in US dollars (USD), compared to $29 trillion for the US and $20 trillion for the European Union. Russia’s GDP increased at 3.6% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, fueled by massive military spending at 6 to 7% of GDP and 30-32% of the government’s budget. (In the US, military outlays are about 13% of the Federal budget and almost half of discretionary spending.) But military spending does not create long-term growth; only investment in infrastructure, factories, mines, education, health care, R&D and the like does that. And US and European sanctions are finally having an effect. So many observers forecast Russian GDP growth at only 1-2% in 2025, and even worse in 2026.
Indeed, many senior Russian officials are warning of an impending recession, and even Putin himself has recently stated that “we need a more balanced budget” and “we are planning to reduce military spending over the next three years.” While this may well be a lie, it is clear that his experts such as the Economy Minister, head of the largest bank, and internal rating agencies are all warning of recession in late 2025 or throughout 2026, and the need to reduce military outlays. Since war is a test of wills, and wills are expressed in spending, this bodes ill for Russia’s ability to pay for the war.
BYE-BYE NATIONAL WEALTH
Putin and his Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, prepared for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine for a decade. Nabiullina, one of the smartest and most dangerous people in the country, built up the National Wealth Fund to a massive $128 billion USD, anticipating international sanctions. However, when the “3-day Special Military Operation” became a 3-year war, the NWF was drawn down by two-thirds to refurbish tanks that are quickly blown up and other wasteful military expenditures. The Fund now sits at $36 billion or less and is going down every day.
Putin and Nabiullina could have spent the Fund’s billions on improving the lot of rural Russians, but they chose not to. Russia once had 150,000 viable rural villages, but the collapse of rural agriculture, jobs, roads and infrastructure has led to 20,000 of these now being totally deserted, and another 30,000 now have fewer than 10 inhabitants. Only one-third of households in the nation’s inhabited rural villages have indoor bathrooms – this society is literally going down the outhouse toilet.
A DEMOGRAPHIC MESS
A “demographic pyramid” can be constructed for each country on Earth. The demographic pyramid (see the image below) for Russia is a hot mess. Such a pyramid shows the numbers of men and women in each age bracket. A good pyramid has a healthy number of men and women in the key earning years of 20 to 60, so they can earn money, have babies, support their non-earning children and retired parents, and pay taxes to pay for common goods.
Russia’s pyramid has been damaged by huge numbers of men killed in WW II by enemy forces and disease (with knock-on effects into the present and future); casualties in the Ukraine war and other conflicts; millions murdered or displaced by Stalin; hundreds of thousands of young men fleeing Putin’s military conscription in the last three years; young women refusing to bring babies into the woeful Russian economy, with a couples’ replacement rate of 1.41 compared to the needed rate of 2.1; very high abortion rates; high mortality rates among working age men from alcohol poisoning, stress, and accidents; high cardiovascular disease in both sexes; high infant mortality; high suicide rates, crime and violence; and by poor and corrupt health care systems. Putin is very aware of these issues and often speaks about demographics, but regularly makes policy choices that exacerbate the problem.
The UN and the prestigious Atlantic Council estimate that Russia’s current population of 146 million will fall to 74 to 112 million by the year 2100, which the Council calls “disastrous.” In contrast, some of Russia’s 140 ethnic groups, such as the Chechens, have rapidly growing populations, leading some analysts to predict a possible future of “Russia without Russians”!
All of these trends mean that Russia is weak and getting weaker in its ability to pay for the Ukraine war and to find replacements for soldiers slaughtered every day in battle.
IN DEATH GROUND
Finally, Sun Tzu cautioned that a good general never forces his enemy to fight “in death ground,” where it is clear to the enemy troops that total annihilation is imminent, and they must fight ferociously and to the death if necessary. This is exactly what Putin is forcing on the Ukrainians – total annihilation and genocide. Each Ukrainian soldier and (if necessary) civilian guerrilla will fight 10 times harder and smarter than each unmotivated, old, weary, badly led Russian solder – an obvious fact that Putin, Trump, Hegseth and most Western pundits and analysts apparently cannot comprehend.
This is Zelenskyy’s strongest card.
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Images and photos, courtesy of Lew Toulmin:
- Losses (killed or seriously wounded in action) in the Russian military in the Ukraine war since February 2022 passed the astounding figure of 1,000,000 on June 12, 2025 (and are now over 1,050,000). The small orange figures show losses in each category (persons, tanks, aircraft, etc.) for the one day of June 12, while the large yellow figures show total losses during the war. Note that the Russians have already lost 19,933 tanks, while the entire US military has only 4,650 main battle tanks IN TOTAL, of which only half are ready for immediate combat!
- Inflation rates for Russia vary wildly by source. The most accurate source was ROMIR, which had a robust methodology, and is shown in this chart in the green line. This estimate was consistently twice as high as Rostat government official rate, shown in red. Unfortunately, ROMIR was ordered by the government to stop collecting data, so only the official rate was available until recently. That rate in June was about 10%; my professional guesstimate is that the real rate is 20% or more. In early July Putin decreed that ALL economic and military data were classified as secret and will no longer be available to the public. He’s getting desperate.
- Recruiting posters make service in the Russian army look glamorous, instead of murderous. Putin has been recruiting from the 140 Russian minorities (whom he is happy to kill off); brought in 10,000 North Korean soldiers of whom 6,000 are now dead or seriously wounded and is bringing in another 50,000; and is now being sold a unit of Laotian soldiers. This conflict is gradually becoming a world war, something the Western press is – of course — ignoring.
- The Russian army is so desperate it is recruiting septuagenarians! Here 76-year-old Viktor Vazhenin of Amazar, Transbaikalia, Russia signs up for military service to get a large signing bonus and likely death benefit. On the left is his girlfriend of 18 years, whom he just married to ensure she gets all the benefits when he is killed or dies of exhaustion.
- One of hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers is buried with little ceremony. Massive new graveyards across Russia have been documented by overhead satellites.
- Elvina Nabiullina is the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia. Born in 1963 into a Tatar family, she is an economist who attended the Moscow State University and the Yale World Fellows program. In 2014 she was named as one of the 100 most powerful people in the world by Forbes magazine. She built up the National Wealth Fund in preparation for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. A favorite of Putin, she recently disagreed with his desire to lower interest rates, currently set by her Bank at 20%. Hence in future she may be fired or murdered, likely by defenestration or “suicide.” Her colleague the Transport Minister was recently fired by Putin and was found dead within hours, a victim of “suicide” or more likely assassination.
- An almost abandoned village in Russia. One third of Russia’s 150,000 rural villages are now completely or almost deserted.
- The estimated demographic pyramid for Russia, from Populationpyramid.net, shows two major problems. First, there is a significant “notch” in the crucial child-bearing ages of 20 to 34 for both males and females. These horizontal bars should ideally be much wider, helping to make the overall shape a true pyramid. Second, females outnumber males in many age groups, and men are dying much younger than females. This leads to a median age for males of 38, and 43 for females. Overall the population size is declining, with no prospect of increasing.
- The contrasting population pyramid for the growing number of Chechens in Russia. This pyramid is much healthier, with adequate men and women in the key working/child-bearing cohorts. The Russian central government and army have already fought and won three civil wars against the Chechens, who are ruthless, tribal, vicious fighters, and very corrupt. If Putin is assassinated, it is quite possible it will be done by a Chechen, and if the central government weakens much more, the Chechens will likely rebel again and demand independence.
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For a list of 92 murders and very suspicious deaths since 2022 of oligarchs, CEOs, wealthy businessmen, senior government officials and other dignitaries in or connected to Russia, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022. Common fates are defenistration (exiting high windows — very popular), stabbings, shots to the head, unlikely heart attacks or strokes, burning alive, drowning, beatings, poisoning, etc. Spouses and children are also often slaughtered.
If you are an American billionaire, CEO, pundit or politician and a supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and you wish to invest in, visit or live in Russia, please contact the Russian Investment Agency, at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/russian-investment-agency-invest-in-russia-
